Voters on the Māori roll in Invercargill, Bluff, Rakiura and the rest of Southland are part of one of the least predictable contests of Saturday's election, with RNZ listing Te Tai Tonga among the seats to watch on election night.

The electorate is the biggest in the country by a wide margin, covering every part of the South Island along with Rakiura, the Chathams, and central Wellington plus some of the Hutt Valley, an area 1News put at more than 150,000 square kilometres.

The sitting MP, Tākuta Ferris, took the seat in 2023 as a Te Pāti Māori candidate with 12,828 votes to Labour's Rino Tirikatene on 10,004, ending a long run of Labour and Tirikatene family control of the seat. He was expelled from the party in 2025 and is standing as an independent, which means he has no list route back to Parliament if he loses.

Labour's candidate is Mananui Ramsden, a qualified carpenter and former cultural adviser at Environment Canterbury, who is standing for the electorate only. Te Pāti Māori has selected Lisa Marie Murch, who previously taught in primary schools and in kaupapa Māori education and was born and raised in the electorate, to replace Ferris. The Greens are running Dr Lisa Te Morenga, an Otago University professor whose field is Māori health and nutrition and who has spent more than two decades in public health research.

The only published poll of the seat, run by Curia for Whakaata Māori between 14 and 24 September with 500 Māori voters, put Ramsden well ahead. Te Ao Māori News reported Ramsden on 30 per cent, Murch on 17, Te Morenga on 16 and Ferris last on 15 per cent, with a margin of error of 4.5 points. The Spinoff, reporting the same poll, said Ramsden led on 36 per cent to Ferris's 18 once undecided voters were set aside. Ferris told The Spinoff he had never been too worried about polls.

Ferris has urged supporters to give him their electorate vote and send their party vote to parties of the left, and Te Pāti Māori itself is contesting only the Māori seats nationally and registered just 0.4 per cent in Tuesday's 1News-Verian poll.

The outcome has implications beyond the seat itself. RNZ's reporting of the final 1News-Verian poll showed the left bloc's path to a majority shifting by several seats depending on how many Māori electorates Te Pāti Māori holds, which makes Te Tai Tonga one of a handful of contests that could shape the size of the next Parliament.

Ngāi Tahu is the dominant iwi across almost all of the electorate, with Ngāti Toa also influential at its northern end, according to The Spinoff. In 2023 turnout in Te Tai Tonga was 68 per cent, and Labour won the party vote in the electorate with 37 per cent.

Anyone on the Māori roll in Southland votes for a Te Tai Tonga candidate rather than for Invercargill or Southland. Election day is Saturday 7 November.