Possum numbers are above the regional limit in more than a third of Southland's possum control areas, and Environment Southland staff expect the problem to keep spreading unless the way control is delivered changes.
A report to a council workshop on Wednesday 11 November says monitoring this year found 23 of the region's 63 possum control areas, covering about 170,840 hectares, were over the threshold set in the Regional Pest Management Plan.
The plan's standard is a residual trap catch of 5%. Residual trap catch is a standard measure of possum numbers based on the share of monitoring traps that catch a possum. Three areas recorded more than 15%.
In 2023, eight areas were over the limit and a further six were considered at risk. The worst result has also climbed, from 18% in 2023 to 32.7% this year.
Possum control areas are a community-led programme in which landowners work together to keep possums down, protecting pasture, native plants and wildlife. The report says the programme has improved outcomes for biodiversity and farm production, but is struggling to hold possums at the levels the plan requires.
It lists several causes: rising operating costs, changes in how many landowners take part, shortages of workers and technical skills, less use of some control methods, and possums moving back in from neighbouring public conservation land.
Where numbers are this high, the report says, the work and money needed to bring them back under the threshold "is likely to be beyond what can reasonably be expected of individual landowners acting independently".
"Without changes to the current approach, staff expect the number of PCAs exceeding RPMP thresholds to continue increasing over time," it says. PCAs are possum control areas, and the RPMP is the Regional Pest Management Plan.
Options on the table
Staff have prepared an indicative business case, an early-stage assessment of options, looking at how possum control could be delivered in future. The workshop agenda says councillors would discuss the costs, benefits, risks and strategic fit of different delivery approaches. The options themselves are not set out in the public agenda, which lists no attachments.
The workshop also looked at the wider review of the pest plan. The current plan covers 2019 to 2029 and must be reviewed by August 2029 under the Biosecurity Act 1993.
Staff have drawn up four levels of review. A minimum review would fix known problems and inconsistencies in the current plan. A moderate review would add a fresh look at biosecurity priorities and new programmes for emerging threats, within existing funding. A complete review would go further, tackling gaps such as freshwater biosecurity, with possible changes to funding. An ambitious review would reassess biosecurity risks, species management, priorities and investment from the ground up.
Councillors were asked for their views on the scale and direction of the review, the outcomes it should aim for, and which possum control delivery options should be investigated further.
Te Ao Mārama Inc has been invited to take part in the review, including a place on a project oversight group and on the hearing panel. The report says staff expect initial and formal consultation on the proposal to be needed.
What happens next
A workshop cannot make decisions. The report says councillors' feedback will shape the next round of analysis and stakeholder engagement, and recommendations that will come back to the council later. It gives no dates for those decisions.
The monitoring results are not new to councillors. A footnote says they were reported to the Integrated Catchment Management Committee on 16 September, and the minutes of that meeting record staff saying a future report would set out options for a sustainable possum control area programme.
A first-quarter performance report going to the Finance and Performance Committee on 18 November shows $93,000 budgeted this financial year for the pest plan review. It shows $60,000 spent in the first quarter, against $23,000 budgeted for that period.
The Herald has asked Environment Southland for comment.
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