Two days after the polls closed, nobody can yet say who will run the country. The preliminary count from Saturday's general election leaves the National-led coalition with a one-seat cushion in an oversized Parliament, with roughly 399,000 special votes, on RNZ's estimate, yet to be opened.

Figures supplied by the Electoral Commission and published by RNZ put Labour narrowly ahead on the party vote, with 710,330 votes (29.4 per cent) to National's 706,680 (29.2 per cent), a gap of 3650. The Greens took 13.3 per cent, ACT 10.9, New Zealand First 9.8 and Opportunity 6.0, which carries Qiulae Wong's party into Parliament for the first time. Te Pāti Māori, which contested only the Māori electorates, drew 0.6 per cent.

Seats tell a different story. National leads in 42 electorates, among them Invercargill and Southland, where Penny Simmonds and Joseph Mooney were both returned comfortably. Its party vote entitles it to only 35 MPs, RNZ's Craig McCulloch reported, so the extra seven become overhang seats. Te Pāti Māori's five electorate wins add four more. The result is a provisional Parliament of 131 members instead of the usual 120, with 66 needed for a majority.

On those numbers National has 42 seats, Labour 36, the Greens 16, ACT 13, New Zealand First 12 and Opportunity seven, with five for Te Pāti Māori. The three governing parties hold 67 between them and the other four 64. Without the overhang, McCulloch calculated, the two sides would be tied at 60 each.

Because every National MP is an electorate MP, nobody comes in from its list. That removes Finance Minister Nicola Willis, Speaker Gerry Brownlee and Paul Goldsmith, who failed to take Epsom from ACT's David Seymour. Chris Bishop trails Labour's Ginny Andersen by 889 votes in Hutt South.

Christopher Luxon told supporters in Auckland about midnight on Saturday that National had "a pathway" to government but the race was "too close to call". On Sunday he said serious coalition talks would wait for the final count, as they did in 2023, and that he took responsibility for what he called a "huge loss" of senior colleagues. Having ruled out Opportunity during the campaign, he said it was "highly unlikely" he would need the party, but that he now meant to build a relationship with Ms Wong.

Labour leader Chris Hipkins has not conceded. "New Zealand has spoken," he said on the night, adding that working out exactly what had been said would take longer. On Monday he said democracy should not be "a plaything for billionaires", a reference to the campaign urging voters to split their two votes, and predicted a debate about rules to prevent large overhangs.

Ms Wong told her supporters on Saturday they had chosen "unity over division", and repeated that Opportunity would talk first to whichever party finished with the most votes.

The specials, roughly one vote in seven, could move things either way. RNZ identified Wairarapa, where National's lead is 139 votes, and Hamilton East (456) as seats that might flip to Labour, and Mt Roskill, where Labour is 262 ahead, as one that could go the other way. A single list seat shifting from ACT or New Zealand First to the other side would cut the coalition to 66.

Turnout came in at 74.6 per cent, according to an ABC analysis carried by RNZ, and only one New Zealand election has had a lower figure. Mr Hipkins said on Monday he believed enrolment changes made by the outgoing Government had shut some voters out.

The official results are due on Friday 27 November, and Mr Luxon suggested that in the meantime politicians, reporters and the public could all use a rest after six weeks of campaigning.