Labour has edged ahead of National in the final published poll of the campaign, but neither the governing coalition nor the opposition bloc reaches a majority, setting up what commentators are calling a cliffhanger when votes are counted on Saturday night.

The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll, released on Friday morning and reported by RNZ, has Labour on 30.7 per cent, up two points on the pollster's October survey, with National slipping 1.2 points to 26.4 per cent. The Greens are on 13 per cent, New Zealand First on 12 per cent and ACT on 9.8 per cent.

The Opportunity Party sits at 5.1 per cent, a whisker above the threshold needed to enter Parliament without an electorate seat. Te Pāti Māori is on 2 per cent.

On those numbers, RNZ reported, National, ACT and NZ First would hold 59 seats between them in a 120-seat Parliament, leaving them two seats shy of a 61-seat majority. On the other side of the House, Te Pāti Māori's two per cent, added to Labour and the Greens, would produce 55 seats. That would leave Opportunity, if its support survives the count, holding the balance of power.

The poll showed a sharp gender and age split. Women favoured Labour over National by 37.9 per cent to 26.2, and under-35s went 40.7 per cent for Labour and 22.8 for the Greens, with National on 17.9. Among voters over 55, National led on 32 per cent, followed by NZ First on 15.5 and ACT on 14.3. The published report did not give the poll's sample size or margin of error.

For Southland, the party vote is where the region's influence lies. Both local seats are regarded as safe for National: Penny Simmonds won Invercargill in 2023 with 55 per cent of the candidate vote and a majority of almost 9900, and Joseph Mooney took Southland by more than 17,000 votes, according to the Southland Tribune's election preview. National took 42 per cent of the party vote in Invercargill and 48 per cent in the Southland electorate in 2023, well above its national share of 38 per cent.

Writing for The Conversation, republished by RNZ, Auckland University public policy researcher Grant Duncan said the things to watch on Saturday night were whether Opportunity clears the threshold, how many electorate seats National wins relative to its party vote, and whether the combined National and Labour vote drops below 60 per cent for the first time under MMP. The lowest it has been was 62 per cent in 1996.

Duncan noted that a National party vote near 29 or 30 per cent would ordinarily entitle it to about 35 seats, but it could win 39 or more electorates, creating an overhang that would enlarge Parliament beyond 120 seats. He also pointed out that Labour could win a larger party vote than National while finishing with fewer seats.

The Spinoff's Toby Manhire reported that in 2023 the first results appeared about 10 minutes after polls closed at 7pm, and the Electoral Commission aims to have half of all voting places counted by 10pm and 95 per cent of the preliminary result published by 11.30pm. Advance votes are counted from 9am on Saturday but are not released until after 7pm.

Election-night figures are preliminary. Special votes, which made up just over 20 per cent of all votes in 2020, are counted over the following 10 days, and in 2023 they shifted two seats away from National. The official result is due on Friday 27 November, with coalition talks potentially stretching into December.

Voting places across Invercargill and Southland open at 9am on Saturday and close at 7pm.